Comments on: The Slippery Slope http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:09:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tony http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/comment-page-1/#comment-6111 Tony Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:55:50 +0000 http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/#comment-6111 This is consistent with what I heard a few weeks ago from Muskie School economist Charlie Colgan (audio <a href="http://muskie.usm.maine.edu/news/display.jsp?id=607677EB7F1949C7E0406F827D871D29" rel="nofollow">here</a>). Even without running the regression analyses, the steep slope of the curve so far seems to suggest a deeper and longer recession than either you or I remember. Cheery thought, I know, but I don't think this is an issue of whether the glass is half full, half empty, or if you have twice as much glass as you need. It's a matter of having a glass at all. This is consistent with what I heard a few weeks ago from Muskie School economist Charlie Colgan (audio here). Even without running the regression analyses, the steep slope of the curve so far seems to suggest a deeper and longer recession than either you or I remember. Cheery thought, I know, but I don’t think this is an issue of whether the glass is half full, half empty, or if you have twice as much glass as you need. It’s a matter of having a glass at all.

]]> By: Brian http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/comment-page-1/#comment-6107 Brian Tue, 10 Feb 2009 17:34:19 +0000 http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/#comment-6107 Have a look at <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/why-were-probably-in-for-long-recession.html" rel="nofollow">Nate Silver's post</a> today about the likely unemployment curve for this recession. His take is that, based on the last couple of recessions, job recovery won't really start up until the middle of 2010. Have a look at Nate Silver’s post today about the likely unemployment curve for this recession. His take is that, based on the last couple of recessions, job recovery won’t really start up until the middle of 2010.

]]> By: Tony http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/comment-page-1/#comment-6100 Tony Tue, 10 Feb 2009 01:55:27 +0000 http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/#comment-6100 Feckin' scary, even. While we are still a long way from Depression-like numbers, we're going to get a lot closer to them a lot faster than anyone would care to think if that curve doesn't start pulling up. I hadn't remembered the 2001 recession being worse than 1990's, but I suppose your assessment, if not based on objective data, is more a function of your own experience. Feckin’ scary, even. While we are still a long way from Depression-like numbers, we’re going to get a lot closer to them a lot faster than anyone would care to think if that curve doesn’t start pulling up.

I hadn’t remembered the 2001 recession being worse than 1990′s, but I suppose your assessment, if not based on objective data, is more a function of your own experience.

]]> By: Karan http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/comment-page-1/#comment-6098 Karan Tue, 10 Feb 2009 00:19:54 +0000 http://www.briankaneonline.com/2009/02/09/the-slippery-slope/#comment-6098 Well that's frickin' scary. Well that’s frickin’ scary.

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