Let’s cheer up a little bit, shall we?
For years, scientists have been warning about the possibility of the Earth’s magnetic poles suddenly reversing. Geological data shows that the poles do reverse, and the theory has been that 1) the reversal happens on a reasonably predictable basis and b) it is due to happen again at any time.
This article points to some new data that indicates that pole reversals aren’t as regular or predictable as previously thought so there’s really no hard evidence to suggest that we’re “overdue” or that one is likely to happen any time soon. Also, the magnetic poles constantly move anyway, with little disruption to the planet, and even a flip of polarity would likely be a non-event for most humans.
By now you’ve surely heard the Peak Oil Hypothesis — how the world’s production of oil has peaked, and given known resources and expected increased demand, we should run out of oil in the next 30 years. All the doomsdayers LOVE them some Peak Oil.
The Peak Oil Hypothesis is based on a methodology described by a fellow named M. King Hubbert, who correctly projected in 1956 that domestic oil production in the United States would peak in 1970 and decline thereafter. Depending on who’s telling the story, either the peak has already happened for world oil production, or it’s about to happen soon (2010 being the usual date cited). But despite the widespread discussion, not everyone is convinced Peak Oil is anywhere near at all.
This report given at an energy conference by a former executive of Dutch Shell raised some eyebrows when he told the group that most estimates of existing reserves are over-conservative and do not account for significant improvements in drilling for oil. But his real point was that the climate crisis will force huge reductions in demand long before supply issues can, so worrying about running out of oil is counter-productive. Finding viable alternatives should continue at the forefront of policy and R&D much faster than is being done now, because the timetable of the Hubbert Peak is not in tune with the pace of environmental change. Okay, so maybe that isn’t ENTIRELY good news…
This Beacon Broadside blog post by author Jeremy Adam Smith was a wonderful shot of perspective in the midst of some serious doom-and-gloom news. He’s trying to be realistic about the likelihood of a major economic disaster settling in on us for the long haul, but at the same time looking for reasons to be optimistic about what positive developments could come from such bad times. He talks about spending time with his young son and being reminded that at the individual level the events of the world can still be kept at bay with simple happiness, but his broader point is that the motif for our whole society should be repairing trust. In the context of yesterday’s post about the angry mobs at Sarah Palin rallies, that’s good to keep in mind…as is the monumental size of that task.
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