Tag recession

Fukushima Isn’t The Only Thing In Meltdown

Guardian columnist Will Hutton recently posted this commentary about what he characterizes as “the meltdown of capitalism” stemming from the crisis with the Euro caused by the now-nearly-certain default by Greece and increasingly likely defaults by Spain, Portugal, Italy and possibly Ireland.

This International Business Times article doesn’t mince words about the situation: welcome to the Great Recession of 2011. IBT quotes Nouriel Roubini saying that the recession has likely already begun and that the Greek default will act like the first domino in a chain, and even China will not be able to keep things stable because their economy is also in jeopardy due to a housing bubble.

The time for real revolution is no longer in the distance. It is now.

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Don’t Let The Door Hit Your Ass On The Way Out

Around this time last year, the business website 24/7 Wall Street.com issued their annual prognostication about brands that would go the way of the dodo over the forthcoming year, as I mentioned here. Of the ten brands listed last year, all of them are still around today, even poor beleaguered Blockbuster Video, although that company was sold at auction for pennies on the dollar a few months ago. The remaining Blockbuster stores will indeed go away soon, and T-Mobile is being Borg’d by AT&T and will disappear sometime next year, but all in all the predictions didn’t turn out quite as well (or as badly, depending on your point of view) as one might have thought.

Here’s this year’s list, which includes Sony Pictures and Sony Ericksson, Sears, and the one one slam-dunk on the list, Saab (they announced last week that they could no longer meet payroll, which means they’re pretty much kaput). Some other obvious ones like Nokia somehow didn’t make the list.

Well, Paul the Octopus is dead now, so nothing makes sense anymore and who knows what the future will bring.

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I Was The Kid With The Drum

This Big Think post by political scientist Robert de Neufville hits home very hard. The small improvements in the unemployment numbers in recent months are in no small part due to the simple reality that many people are no longer counted among the unemployed because they no longer qualify for UI benefits. Dropped off the radar of official accounting, they have also dropped off the radar of employers, and a huge percentage of those people are workers over the age of 45. People in their mid-to-late careers are, generally speaking, the most expensive ones for employers to hire: they (used to) command the highest wages and the largest benefit packages. Experience no longer wins out over cost-per-employee, and so the workforce not only sheds senior employees, it refuses to take them on when hiring picks up. Yet these people have the most to lose personally. What is one to do when one is too young to retire but too old to find a job? For me, it’s been lucky that I had a portable skill that I could turn into some (still very meager) part-time work, but the simple fact is that I would be totally unemployable if I started shopping around a resume, looking for the sort of job I used to have. It’s a very sobering realization that you are completely useless at age 47, with a very long road left ahead. It’s a good thing I’ll probably die young.

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Labor Day 2010

Robert Reich’s recent post about the pernicious effect of the concentration of wealth on the economic health of America.

Political science professor David Michael Green: “Our Long National Nightmare Isn’t Over, It’s Just Beginning”

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Aux Armes, Citroyens!

In honor of Bastille Day, it’s worth taking a moment to consider the situation in which we find ourselves in this country today.

Speaking at the protests of the G20 summit in Toronto, Canadian activist Maude Barlow reminded the gathered crowd that the three richest men in the world have more money than the 48 poorest COUNTRIES in the world. Just let that sink into your brain for a second. Overall, the richest 2% of the world’s population controls over half of the wealth, and the bottom 50% control less than 1% of the wealth.

Sucks to be them, right? Well, you’re most likely one of them, too. If you’ve got some time, this rant by Hofstra University political science professor David Michael Green brings home the reality of how the redistribution of wealth away from the middle class is on the brink of turning this country into another Argentina or Brazil, where a tiny percentage of elites control the wealth and the vast majority of people live in the worst slums imaginable. If you can’t be bothered to read the whole thing (and it is quite a stemwinder), at least read this paragraph:

The product of these efforts has been precisely what one would expect. Corporations and economic elites have grown fantastically more wealthy than they already were thirty years ago. Their tax liabilities are now negligible and sometimes less than zero. Massive national debt, the product in part of those tax gifts to the rich, plus huge bills for interest on that debt (this alone is one of the largest items in the federal budget each year), is now owned by the mass public, who got nickels and dimes worth of tax cuts, in exchange for which they will now have to literally work years of their lives to pay down the taxes the rich escaped. Working people across the country get less and pay more for everything today. College is becoming increasingly out of the financial reach of average Americans. The minimum wage, which actually often isn’t the minimum, is far from a sustainable salary for one person, let alone a family. As of 2004, the richest one percent of Americans possessed sixty percent of all wealth in the country, while the bottom forty percent accounted for a whopping two-tenths of a percent. Between 1979 and 2004, after-tax income for the top one percent of Americans rose by 176 percent, while for those in the bottom 20 percent that figure rose only six percent. And those figures are for six years ago, during what by current standards was flush times for working people. Now jobs are disappearing, with the inevitable effect of driving wages down further, not to mention all the obvious effects on prosperity, security, health, mental health and sheer longevity.

Here’s a graph to help you visualize that:

Writing in The Nation, Harvard economist and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich says that this widening gap is at the very heart of the Great Recession, just as it was in 1929. In 1928, the richest 1% of Americans received 23.8% of income earned in the U.S., and in 2007 that figure was 23.5%, aided by tax cuts and shifting tax burdens that consistently favored the rich while gutting the middle-class. Again, Reich’s article isn’t a quick read, so here’s a good pullquote:

If nothing more is done, America’s three-decade-long lurch toward widening inequality is an open invitation to a future demagogue who misconnects the dots, blaming immigrants, the poor, government, foreign nations, “socialists” or “intellectual elites” for the growing frustrations of the middle class. The major fault line in American politics will no longer be between Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives. It will be between the “establishment” and an increasingly mad-as-hell populace determined to “take back America” from them. When they understand where this is heading, powerful interests that have so far resisted reform may come to see that the alternative is far worse.

Need some quant porn to flesh it out? Look at this post at Calculated Risk that compares the current unemployment situation to previous economic downturns. The graph below is too small to read here, so be sure to look at the original, but I think even at the reduced size you get the point:

Boston College law professor Ray D. Madoff (apparently no relation) calls the end of the estate tax and the continuation of other elite-friendly tax laws nothing less than the enabling conditions to create an American aristocracy, even as some super-rich individuals like Warren Buffet and Bill Gates themselves have called for their class to give away their fortunes to the betterment of society.

While Reich is quick (and correct) to point out that the Democrats are just as equally to blame for the situation as the Republicans, it never ceases to amaze me that the current crop of Republicans has stopped even pretending that they have any other agenda, and that President Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress will compliantly go right along with it, without so much as a peep from anyone other than “Give ‘Em Hell” Bernie Sanders (the only ACTUAL socialist in Washington, I hasten to add).

It is more than painfully clear that there is little that can be done within the existing political structure to reverse the situation, and that the only agent of change will be class warfare on the size and scope of the three major proletarian revolutions. The real remaining question is how much worse will things have to get for the middle-class populations of the U.S. and Europe — will nothing happen until every major city resembles Mumbai or Rio de Janeiro? I think the answer lies in how quickly things transpire; if things level off for a decade or two, the complacent population of America and Europe are not likely to rise up, even as our way of life is inexorably assaulted. A few sharper shocks, and maybe we’ll get some sense kicked into us.

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Brand Name Deadpool

This post at the financial news website 24/7 Wall St. tries to emulate Paul The Octopus by predicting which companies and/or their well-known brand names will face the Vuvuzelas of Death in the next year. Among the likely octopus chow:

  • Radio Shack
  • Reader’s Digest
  • T-Mobile
  • Blockbuster Video
  • and, big surprise, BP

Some of their picks are simply going out of business, like Reader’s Digest and Blockbuster, while others are acquisition targets likely to be swallowed by some bigger corporate cephalopod (like T-Mobile), and some are just getting a makeover (BP, Kia Motors). Back in December, they correctly predicted doom for Newsweek, and before that they called it right on Saturn, but they have been premature on several others, so you might not want to bet your World Cup winnings on these picks, but it will be interesting to follow up on this six months from now to see how they’re doing.

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Well And Truly Fucked

Line ‘em up, take their pictures, and then somebody PLEASE get rid of these motherfuckers, each and every one. Over the weekend, they all sat down and guaranteed that anyone who hadn’t been fleeced in the Bank Crisis of 2008 would get fleeced in the Double-Dip Recession of 2010…all except the bankers, of course, who continue to rob the industrialized world blind with the silent approval of these assholes (in return, I’m sure, for a few crumbs from the bankers’ tables). They all nodded their heads about reining in deficits by slashing desperately needed economic stimulus, even as the U.S. prepares to waste another $33 billion on Afghanistan.

At least they had the decency not to be photographed in silly costumes this time, The wall of black-suited men (pace Angela Merkel) is appropriately funerary for the death sentence they all signed off on.

A selection of news articles and op-eds:

Unclear On The Concept, #596015

Via Fast Company

I know old habits die hard, but at what point are we going to give it up, kids? A twelve-billion-dollar spending deficit for the month of January alone?? And Christmas spending (which this mostly reflects) was actually down 3% from 2008. It just makes me wonder exactly what it’s going to take to make people stop the madness.

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A Brief Lesson On Neoliberalism

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Iceland (And Latvia) One Year Later

iceland-protests

Like the proverbial canary in the coal mine, the nation of Iceland was one of the first places to be brought to its economic knees by the global recession last year. I posted about the situation just as our own stock market was free-falling last October and again back in March of this year (last item in the post).

Now, a year on, the Times of London looks at the events of the last twelve months in Iceland. Because the story ran in the “Women’s” section, there’s a somewhat odd slant of the story as it talks about the election of the current prime minister, Johanna Sigurdardottir, and the replacement of most of the cabinet ministers with women, but if you can get beyond the patronizing tone of that part of the article, it’s a good review.

Relatedly, The Nation has this article about the state of the Latvian economy, which also went tits-up last year and has been struggling quite badly since. Like Iceland, Latvia had been experiencing a boom through financial speculation, even as Latvia had been experiencing emigration of its labor force to the rest of Europe (Latvia joined the EU in 2004). Unlike Iceland, which has a very homogenous population and culture, Latvia has a very large Russian minority as a legacy of its forced inclusion in the Soviet Union, and political stability has been far less easily maintained than in placid, plodding Iceland.

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